Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.004013 0.004217 0.004426 0.004657 0.004904 0.005162 0.005451
2025-01-12 0.003657 0.003964 0.004291 0.004669 0.005093 0.005557 0.006106
2025-01-19 0.003322 0.003670 0.004052 0.004505 0.005031 0.005625 0.006353
2025-01-26 0.003170 0.003559 0.003996 0.004527 0.005159 0.005895 0.006825
2025-02-02 0.003107 0.003540 0.004035 0.004651 0.005403 0.006303 0.007476
2025-02-09 0.002958 0.003408 0.003932 0.004594 0.005419 0.006428 0.007778
2025-02-16 0.002853 0.003322 0.003875 0.004586 0.005490 0.006618 0.008164
2025-02-23 0.002750 0.003231 0.003807 0.004558 0.005528 0.006763 0.008495
2025-03-02 0.002694 0.003194 0.003802 0.004606 0.005663 0.007036 0.009008
2025-03-09 0.002603 0.003111 0.003734 0.004569 0.005683 0.007154 0.009310
2025-03-16 0.002519 0.003031 0.003666 0.004527 0.005692 0.007255 0.009590
2025-03-23 0.002425 0.002935 0.003574 0.004449 0.005647 0.007277 0.009755
2025-03-30 0.002338 0.002848 0.003492 0.004383 0.005619 0.007326 0.009968
2025-04-06 0.002288 0.002806 0.003468 0.004395 0.005698 0.007529 0.010425
2025-04-13 0.002177 0.002682 0.003330 0.004244 0.005542 0.007386 0.010339
2025-04-20 0.002138 0.002651 0.003316 0.004264 0.005628 0.007597 0.010818
2025-04-27 0.002137 0.002671 0.003369 0.004378 0.005854 0.008027 0.011673
2025-05-04 0.002076 0.002607 0.003306 0.004326 0.005833 0.008080 0.011913
2025-05-11 0.002034 0.002567 0.003276 0.004319 0.005878 0.008235 0.012332
2025-05-18 0.001988 0.002521 0.003234 0.004293 0.005892 0.008341 0.012674
2025-05-25 0.001968 0.002509 0.003240 0.004337 0.006014 0.008624 0.013341
2025-06-01 0.001923 0.002462 0.003195 0.004303 0.006013 0.008708 0.013657
2025-06-08 0.001878 0.002415 0.003148 0.004264 0.006003 0.008776 0.013948